Investing

Gawd I hate this market.

Is the NASDAQ now undervalued? If you think so see this

US Markets

My current investing advice? Get yourself a decent money-market account.

Links

Yahoo Quotes
The motley fool
CNN/FN
Institutional investors buy/sell/volume indications
CompanySleuth ticker stats

Notes

NOTE: These are just my random notes on various stocks and whatnot
that I'm looking into or are in my portfolio. It may make some or
no sense, thats cause they are just my notes. I've linked them
off my website so I have access to look through them and at some
time I may just turn my notes into a webpage. Feel free to look
through them but be awares that this doesn't constitute solicitation
to buy, may have forward looking statements that depend on
market conditions, caveat emptor etc ad nauseum.


See: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/

Company & qtry eps

** Internet Software **
F5 Networks: FFIV (0.16 EPS/Qtr)
 Competetors: Alteon (ATON) Foundry(Red) (FDRY)(90xE), Resonate (RSNT)(Red)
 Foundry has larger sales, but wider product line.

software.com: SWCM (0.03)
INKTOMI INKT (0.05)
Real Networks RNWK (0.04)

Gilat Satellite (GILTF)


The case for West Marine

In 1998, bad weather (el nino), inventory management problems, and a
one-time-charge for distribution changes on the east coast added up to 
cause WMAR to drastically miss earnings expectations. The stock took
a beating and has yet to recover.

Since 1998 west marine has changed leadership and worked to correct it's
problems.

The stock never recovered from the 98' slump and is currently at a
depressed price due to the recent stock market weakness.

Value:
 At it's current price, west marine is trading at half it's book value. 

Growth:
  The one analyst covering it estimates a yearly growth of 30%; the stock
is currently trading at a P/E of 12. The P/E is lower and the growth
higher than the rest of the sector (which at a whole is at depressed
prices due to the market slide of this year). While the P/E is a
respectable 12, the P/Cash is below 5.

This stock, given it's growth estimates, should be trading at more than
double it's current price.

Market Position:
WMAR has more than twice the number of stores of it's nearest competetor.
It provides a complete inventory and fast friendly service. It is the
defacto marine store on the west coast.

Market:
The marine market is not only cyclical but also seasonal. Sales are slow
in the off season (winter) causing seasonal losses. WMAR also features 
'port supply' a wholesale outlet for commercial marine industries, which
should not be seasonally affected.

The last year or two WMAR has focused on clearing up process problems
which resulted in the screwup in 1998. 

Target Price: In a year the target price will be ~16 (i think)

Dave and Busters (DAB)
PE 8.8, growth 26.% this year, 21.5% next year, 17.5% beyond that. PEG
0.33.

Carries alot of long term debt; to finance locations? Is this normal in
this industry sector? Missed earnings by quite a bit last year, took a
pounding in the market as a result.


Portfolio Pruning:q

Must go through and justify my current holdings based on factual research
and set what likely target prices are.

What I really gotta figure out is what metrics those wall street loons use
to value companies to see if this stock will be worth holding to that
point. perception shapes reality.

Profitable but overrated (?):
RHAT
CSCO
AXP
Unprofitable but should be held:
GM (PEG in line with what it should be)
Unprofitable but might be held:
Real dogs, any hope for them? dumb mistakes for sure. Wait for bounce?
YHOO (down 60%, 50% overpriced PEG but better than (unprofitable) sector)
LNUX (down 84%, no earnings)
MPLX (down 90%, no earnings)
( actually, MPLX is a steal at it's current price, < 2)


Valuing unprofitable companies.

Run a simulation forward using EPS estimates, and esablished trends in
sales, expenses, market growth.

Once you reach solid profitability, calculate the PEG based on eps/growth.
regress that backwards subtracting benefits for growth, going back to this
year.

This year's price = Next year / (percent growth + 1) 


Stocks to keep an eye on:

Dave & Busters (DAB)
F-5 Labs (FFIV)

Does a company have lower margins when it has higher sustained growth?