Is the NASDAQ now undervalued? If you think so see this
My current investing advice? Get yourself a decent money-market account.
NOTE: These are just my random notes on various stocks and whatnot that I'm looking into or are in my portfolio. It may make some or no sense, thats cause they are just my notes. I've linked them off my website so I have access to look through them and at some time I may just turn my notes into a webpage. Feel free to look through them but be awares that this doesn't constitute solicitation to buy, may have forward looking statements that depend on market conditions, caveat emptor etc ad nauseum. See: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/ Company & qtry eps ** Internet Software ** F5 Networks: FFIV (0.16 EPS/Qtr) Competetors: Alteon (ATON) Foundry(Red) (FDRY)(90xE), Resonate (RSNT)(Red) Foundry has larger sales, but wider product line. software.com: SWCM (0.03) INKTOMI INKT (0.05) Real Networks RNWK (0.04) Gilat Satellite (GILTF) The case for West Marine In 1998, bad weather (el nino), inventory management problems, and a one-time-charge for distribution changes on the east coast added up to cause WMAR to drastically miss earnings expectations. The stock took a beating and has yet to recover. Since 1998 west marine has changed leadership and worked to correct it's problems. The stock never recovered from the 98' slump and is currently at a depressed price due to the recent stock market weakness. Value: At it's current price, west marine is trading at half it's book value. Growth: The one analyst covering it estimates a yearly growth of 30%; the stock is currently trading at a P/E of 12. The P/E is lower and the growth higher than the rest of the sector (which at a whole is at depressed prices due to the market slide of this year). While the P/E is a respectable 12, the P/Cash is below 5. This stock, given it's growth estimates, should be trading at more than double it's current price. Market Position: WMAR has more than twice the number of stores of it's nearest competetor. It provides a complete inventory and fast friendly service. It is the defacto marine store on the west coast. Market: The marine market is not only cyclical but also seasonal. Sales are slow in the off season (winter) causing seasonal losses. WMAR also features 'port supply' a wholesale outlet for commercial marine industries, which should not be seasonally affected. The last year or two WMAR has focused on clearing up process problems which resulted in the screwup in 1998. Target Price: In a year the target price will be ~16 (i think) Dave and Busters (DAB) PE 8.8, growth 26.% this year, 21.5% next year, 17.5% beyond that. PEG 0.33. Carries alot of long term debt; to finance locations? Is this normal in this industry sector? Missed earnings by quite a bit last year, took a pounding in the market as a result. Portfolio Pruning:q Must go through and justify my current holdings based on factual research and set what likely target prices are. What I really gotta figure out is what metrics those wall street loons use to value companies to see if this stock will be worth holding to that point. perception shapes reality. Profitable but overrated (?): RHAT CSCO AXP Unprofitable but should be held: GM (PEG in line with what it should be) Unprofitable but might be held: Real dogs, any hope for them? dumb mistakes for sure. Wait for bounce? YHOO (down 60%, 50% overpriced PEG but better than (unprofitable) sector) LNUX (down 84%, no earnings) MPLX (down 90%, no earnings) ( actually, MPLX is a steal at it's current price, < 2) Valuing unprofitable companies. Run a simulation forward using EPS estimates, and esablished trends in sales, expenses, market growth. Once you reach solid profitability, calculate the PEG based on eps/growth. regress that backwards subtracting benefits for growth, going back to this year. This year's price = Next year / (percent growth + 1) Stocks to keep an eye on: Dave & Busters (DAB) F-5 Labs (FFIV) Does a company have lower margins when it has higher sustained growth?